China’s Shadow Takeover: How Beijing Is Rewriting the Middle East Power Map

Those navigating the complex web of statements, declarations, and international involvement in the Gaza Strip and the political discussions about the post-war future can see that, behind the scenes, China is expanding its influence in the Middle East. It balances open support for Palestinians, ongoing ties with Israel, and a strengthened alliance with Russia.

Since October 7, Beijing has practiced a "biased neutrality," publicly leaning toward the Palestinians in its political stance while continuing to pursue economic and strategic interests with Israel.

In the Israel-Iran conflict, however, Beijing’s position has shifted: China has sharply criticized Iran and taken a conciliatory stance toward Israel. Prominent Chinese scholars have called Iran a "paper tiger," arguing it struggles to keep pace with Middle Eastern events and no longer serves Chinese interests.

These developments challenge Israel’s sharpest political minds to navigate China’s complex interests and find ways to benefit from them in the global power struggle.

Moscow and Beijing: An Alliance Raising Alarms in Washington

The Trump administration has repeatedly voiced concerns over the direct ties and tightening alignment of interests between China and Russia. The US president warned that continued cooperation between these nuclear powers could destabilize the world, making the United States and other nations less secure and less prosperous.

Since the October 7 attack, China has amplified its international calls to support the Palestinian people while consistently avoiding condemnation of Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, or the Houthis. From Beijing’s perspective, Middle East escalations are framed as direct consequences of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

At the same time, China continues to foster economic and diplomatic ties with Israel, a contradiction between rhetoric and action that defines Beijing’s biased neutrality in the region.

Even before the war, China-Israel relations thrived on economic cooperation, particularly in trade and infrastructure. Imports from China are a cornerstone of Israel’s economy, and Israel has taken a pragmatic approach: strengthening ties with Beijing while carefully managing American sensitivities.

For instance, during the COVID-19 pandemic, then-US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo criticized Israel’s Chinese investments over security concerns and accused Beijing of hiding virus-related information. In response, China’s embassy in Israel issued a rare statement: “We are confident that our Jewish friends can not only defeat the coronavirus but also the ‘political virus’ and choose the path that best serves their interests.”

At the same time, China has sharpened its rhetoric in support of the “just struggle of the Palestinian people.” It calls for “ending the Nakba,” the right of return, full sovereignty, and a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital.

Beijing backs UNRWA’s work, strengthens Palestinian Authority institutions, and hosts intra-Palestinian reconciliation initiatives that effectively legitimize Hamas.

In an article by Roi Ben-Tzur from the Institute for National Security Studies, he notes that Beijing frames all volatile Middle East arenas, from Lebanon to Yemen, as direct outcomes of the unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This places primary responsibility on Israel while positioning China as a potential mediator with a “root solution.”

Beyond the Middle East, in the Ukraine war, China claims neutrality but provides Russia with diplomatic and economic support, which the Biden administration credited with prolonging the conflict. The Trump administration warned that the deepening Moscow-Beijing alliance could further destabilize the world.

As permanent UN Security Council members, Russia and China significantly limit the US’s ability to push resolutions favoring Israel or enforce immediate Gaza ceasefires, which both support under Arab influence. For example, Beijing buys large quantities of Russian oil, ignoring the price cap set by the US and its allies, and supplies Moscow with advanced technologies, including drone systems, that can be used directly in combat. This undermines sanctions and cements China as a key Russian partner post-Ukraine invasion.

Meanwhile, unverified Chinese social media reports mentioned Chinese mercenaries fighting in Ukraine, with Ukrainian President Zelensky noting Russia’s recruitment of Chinese citizens via social media.

Last year, China deployed heavy bombers for a joint exercise with Russian fighter jets near Alaska, showcasing its ability to deploy nuclear-armed bombers over long distances and joining the elite group of powers with a “nuclear triad” (air, sea, and land capabilities).

This signaling also speaks to Israel’s strategic deterrence. Foreign reports suggest Israel is the fourth country globally with the ability to deploy strategic nuclear weapons, with German-acquired submarines forming a key part of its deterrence system.

Understanding China’s role in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict requires examining its ties with key Middle Eastern players, especially Saudi Arabia.

The kingdom is China’s largest regional trading partner and primary oil supplier. Beyond economics, both share broader ambitions to boost their regional and global influence against the West.

This, combined with Beijing’s shift away from Iran, offers Israel a chance to leverage its economic ties with China and strengthen them amid discussions on Gaza’s future.

Expert Doron Kokush, in a Mitvim Institute article, suggested involving China in Gaza’s post-war reconstruction.

Beyond Beijing’s capabilities, its participation would create a stake in the region, forcing it to curb extremist groups. Such projects could align Israel with moderate Arab states like Egypt and Saudi Arabia, with potential for US cooperation.

As Western governments and industries grapple with deepening reliance on China or the costly pursuit of material independence, the question looms: Will Israel seize the opportunity to reshape its economic, diplomatic, and strategic relationship with Beijing?