Khamenei’s Alone and Cornered: One Mistake Could End It All
The article examines the precarious position of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who faces isolation after losing key military advisors to Israeli airstrikes, increasing the risk of strategic missteps. It explores how his diminished inner circle, combined with regional setbacks and internal pressures, threatens the stability of his regime.
Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, stands increasingly isolated as Israeli airstrikes have eliminated his top military advisors, amplifying the risk of a catastrophic miscalculation. The 86-year-old leader, who has ruled Iran for 36 years, now faces a leadership vacuum that could destabilize the Islamic Republic, according to five sources familiar with his decision-making process. The loss of key figures like Revolutionary Guards Commander Hossein Salami, Air Force chief Amir Ali Hajizadeh, who led Iran’s ballistic missile program, and intelligence head Mohammad Kazemi has left Khamenei’s inner circle, typically 15 to 20 loyal advisors, including military commanders, clerics, and politicians, in disarray.
A source regularly present at Khamenei’s meetings warned that the void “dangerously” heightens the chance of errors in defense and domestic stability decisions. These advisors, known for unwavering loyalty to Khamenei and the Islamic Republic’s ideology, convened in Tehran to shape critical policies. Khamenei, scarred by imprisonment before the 1979 Islamic Revolution and a near-fatal assassination attempt, distrusts the West and prioritizes regime survival. “Khamenei is stubborn but extremely cautious, which is why he’s held power so long,” said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute in Washington. “His cost-benefit analysis focuses on one thing above all: regime survival.”
Khamenei’s regime has faced repeated tests, from crushing protests in 1999, 2009, and 2022 using the Revolutionary Guards and Basij militia to enduring economic strain from Western sanctions. Continued Israeli strikes could exacerbate domestic unrest. Though moved to a secure location, Khamenei relies on remaining advisors like his son Mojtaba, a mid-ranking cleric and potential successor, who wields influence through ties to the Guards, and security advisor Ali Asghar Hajjazi, a key intelligence figure. Diplomats like former foreign ministers Ali Akbar Velayati and Kamal Kharrazi also remain influential.
Regionally, Khamenei’s “Axis of Resistance” has crumbled. Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah, a close ally, was killed in an Israeli strike in September 2024, and Syria’s Bashar Assad was ousted in December by anti-Iranian Sunni rebels led by Ahmad al-Sharaa. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a Fox News interview yesterday, suggested targeting Khamenei could end the conflict, stating, “It won’t escalate the conflict; it will end it.” However, reports indicate U.S. President Donald Trump has vetoed this idea for now, highlighting the delicate balance as Khamenei navigates a shrinking circle and mounting threats.