Beware the Fordo Euphoria: Regime Change May Still be Necessary

This week is a week to celebrate. This past week has proven to be one of the most consequential in history, and, in particular, Jewish history.

The capstone of this past week was of course the elimination of Iran's Fordo uranium enrichment center.

That, following impressive successive Israeli military successes in Iran, and coupled with the recent neutering of Iran's proxies, will go down in history as the most security-accretive single-day action since the atomic attack on Nagasaki, Japan in 1945.

With that said, the Torah warns against excessive celebration of a foe's downfall for a reason: if that foe still exists, forever beware the wounded tiger.

The Euphoria displayed by many politicians and talking-heads on television and social media over the last 24 hours is somewhat misplaced and exaggerated relative to the reality. One such pollyannish misstep was made Saturday night by U.S. Senator Tom Cotton who boasted, " they have ended Iran's nuclear program."

Nothing could be further from the truth. The tremendous military skill and prowess, and perhaps miracles, that we've witnessed over the past week, have brought Iran from being 3 weeks away from a functional nuclear weapon to being 3 years away from such a weapon. Three years is a nice cushion, but it is not forever. The Iranians-- masters of deception and procrastination-- know that. 

They know Western Civilization's attention span -- a collective ADHD -- is far less than 3 years. As long as Iran maintains the KNOW-HOW to produce a nuclear weapon, Senator Cotton is sadly and dangerously mistaken.

Iran's nuclear program has NOT ended. It has been halted. It has been scuttled. But it has not been ended. It can and will be restarted if we take our collective eye off the ball.    

Of greater and more immediate concern is the fact that no nuclear contamination has been reported at Fordo. Why? Because the Iranians most likely removed and transferred most of its 60% and higher enriched uranium a while ago. We have no idea currently where they are storing them.

The Iranians may no longer have the immediate ability to enrich uranium as we speak, but sadly they do not need to enrich uranium beyond 65% to build a suitcase-sized dirty bomb. In fact, it is likely that after all the recent strikes, Iran still has enough enriched uranium for 5 or 6 such dirty bombs. There is no doubt in this author's mind that such dirty bombs represent the Islamic regime's next "ace in hole" as a deterrent.

For this reason, it is absolutely critical that Israel, America and the entire Western world beef up security at all ports and border crossings. The threat of a dirty Iranian bomb is another reminder as to why Gaza must always be an “open-air prison,” unable to import as it wishes weapons of mass destruction. This threat also highlights the fact that Israel needs to try even harder to identify and destroy any smuggling tunnels connecting Egypt to Gaza.

However one analyzes this situation, there is still no long-term solution to the Iranian nuclear threat other than one that involves regime change. Furthermore, regime change will eliminate the conventional military threat upon both Israel and U.S. forces in the region. 

Now that the nuclear threat is no longer imminent, the Iranian conventional threat should be our focus as reports that Israel is running out of David ‘s Sling and Arrow interceptors should be taken seriously. Missile defense is never designed to last more than a few months.     

Above and beyond security-related imperatives, Israel, U.S. and Western Civilization have a MORAL duty to change the current Iranian regime.

The Islamic Republic of Iran is one that seized power illegally, refused to have popular elections, maintained power illegally and, most importantly, has systematically imprisoned, raped, tortured and executed its political adversaries, whereby adversaries include innocent civilians marching in the streets and women who dare not wear their hijabs in the precise manner the Islamic regime prescribes.

Those who argue categorically against regime change on legal grounds may have a point in such cases where even autocratic regimes are popular with their people, but when an autocratic regime is as utterly unpopular as the current Islamic regime and acts in a way brutally inimical to its people’s interest, the right to foster regime change may be more than just a right – it may be a moral imperative.    

So, what does a strategy for Iranian regime change, while limiting loss of innocent life, look like? Here's a suggested chronological plan of action:

Step 1: Massive sanctions (including secondary sanctions) coupled with continued elimination of almost all Iranian rocket launchers and ballistic missiles. The U.S. should not only impose maximal sanctions upon the Islamic Republic, but also on the relatives of all regime members.

Furthermore, any country whose trade with Iran comprises more than 5% of its GDP shall also be subject to sanctions of a lesser but still serious degree;

Step 2: Partial destruction (partial to mitigate environmental damage while still rendering economic damage) of Iran's oil fields and oil tankers;

Step 3. Destruction of all Iranian federal office buildings and military installations, including ceremonial symbols of the regime;

Step 4: Destruction of all main police stations and criminal courts in every major Iranian city (so to make it more difficult to arrest, detain and try the counter-regime revolutionaries to arise in later stages);

Step 5: Work with Kurdish allies in Iraq, Syria and Iran to lead a successful Kurish overthrow of regional Iranian authority over the predominantly Kurdish provinces of Kurdistan, Kermanshah, West Azerbaijan, Ilam, and Lorestan.

Establish this area as the first area of “Free Iran” destined to be loyal to the new Iranian regime with an arrangement that allows for local Kurdish autonomy. Invite Iranian opponents of the Islamic regime from all over the world to join the Kurdish-Iranian forces and be trained by Kurdish commanders.

This new Iranian-Kurdish force shall be advised from afar by Israel and the U.S., financed and armed by the U.S. and shall be assisted in combat from the air by American and Israeli drones.

Step 6: The new Kurdish-Iranian army shall conquer and clear several highways and other land routes connecting their territory to Tehran, Qom and Karaj. After doing so, it shall invite opponents of the Islamic regime from those areas to join their ranks and become trained for combat.

With the help of U.S. and Israeli drones, the new revolutionary army will set up checkpoints to facilitate the movement of their loyalists and the execution of regime loyalists. After several months of training, the new Kurdish-Iranian army shall be large enough and equipped enough to conquer Tehran and all provinces between Tehran and West Azerbaijan.

Step 7: Install Reza Pahlavi, Crown Prince of Iran, in Tehran as interim provisional leader of the new Iran and begin process of writing a provisional constitution which will allow for democratic elections within 4 years. The United States and its allies shall immediately recognize the Pahlavi government as the only legitimate representative of Iran and seat Pahlavi’s ambassadors at the United Nations.

Thereafter, all preexisting Iranian ambassadors around the world shall be given 24 hours to permanently vacate their respective embassies, after which point they shall be replaced by ambassadors of Pahlavi’s choosing. Interim President Pahlavi shall announce that all Islamic regime loyalists have 24 hours to leave their homes and proceed to emigrate to Pakistan.

After those 24 hours have expired, and with the help of the Israeli Air Force, the new Pahlavi government shall identify, clear and flatten the 20 most regime- loyal neighborhoods throughout Iran.

Step 8: Liberate rest of Iran. At this point, the new Iranian armed forces shall have received enough tanks and armored personnel carriers to successfully liberate all other areas of Iran, with the help of Israeli and American air cover, within 6 months.

Step 9: round up and eliminate all surviving Iranian nuclear scientists and hand over to IAEA for destruction all remaining enriched uranium.

The achievement of a new Iran with democratic norms and Western values will be not only a great security boon for America and her allies, but will also serve as the impetus for a greater and more long-lasting age of cooperation and economic prosperity for all countries in the Middel East.

David Crystal is a Florida-based political consultant, CEO of Crystal Clear Tutors, and a national correspondent on The Rick Amato Show.