Goldman Sachs: Gold Could Hit $5,000 an Ounce

Gold prices hit a new record this week, crossing the $3,600 per ounce mark amid growing expectations of imminent U.S. interest rate cuts and renewed fears over the independence of the Federal Reserve.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs now warn the rally could stretch significantly further, possibly toward $5,000 an ounce, if the Fed’s autonomy is seriously undermined and investors shift even a small share of their holdings from U.S. Treasuries into bullion.

“A scenario in which the Fed’s independence is compromised would likely result in higher inflation, lower equity valuations, and weaker long-term bond prices, along with an erosion of the dollar’s status as the world’s leading reserve currency,” Goldman economists led by Samantha Dart wrote in their report. “Gold is a store of value that does not rely on institutional trust.”

Multiple Scenarios on the Table

Goldman outlined several possible price paths:

Gold has already been one of the strongest-performing assets of 2025, gaining more than a third in value. The rally has been fueled by central bank buying, expectations of Fed rate cuts in the coming months, and gold’s status as a safe haven assetת especially after U.S. President Donald Trump’s repeated attacks on the Fed and its chair, Jerome Powell. Concerns deepened recently when Trump dismissed Fed Governor Lisa Cook, sparking speculation of political interference.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde weighed in this week, warning that any erosion of Fed independence would pose a “serious danger” to the global economy.

With markets already rattled, the question for investors is no longer whether gold will rise — but how high, and how fast.