The U.S. Ultimatum That Could Spark a War in Lebanon

The Trump administration has warned Lebanon’s leaders that they are running out of time to act against Hezbollah, urging the government to move forward with a plan to dismantle the Shiite militia’s arsenal.

Officials speaking to The New York Times called it “a critical moment in Lebanon’s history,” cautioning that failure to act could cost Beirut both U.S. and Gulf financial support, potentially trigger renewed Israeli military action on Lebanese soil.

Washington, working in coordination with Israeli and Arab partners, has been pressing Beirut to resist Hezbollah’s threats, which many in Lebanon fear could spiral into civil conflict.

Last month, Lebanon’s government instructed its military to draft the first-ever formal plan for disarming Hezbollah, a move welcomed by Washington, Gulf states, and even Israel, which has offered unprecedented assistance. Yet doubts remain about whether Lebanese leaders will risk direct confrontation with a group that still commands both significant weaponry and major influence in parliament.

According to security sources cited by Al-Arabi, the Lebanese army has been placed on high alert ahead of today’s cabinet meeting, which will deliberate on the disarmament initiative. An American official warned that half-measures could push the U.S. Congress to cut the $150 million in annual aid to Lebanon.

Israel, meanwhile, has already reestablished several military outposts in southern Lebanon, signaling its readiness to act if Hezbollah is not restrained. Israeli officials say Hezbollah has repeatedly violated the 2024 cease-fire, raising the risk of another large-scale conflict.

U.S. envoy Thomas Barrack, has meanwhile been spearheading a diplomatic push in Beirut, presenting Lebanese leaders with a comprehensive postwar framework that echoes the 1989 Taif Agreement and U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701.

The American proposal calls for:

The proposal also includes substantial international military assistance for the Lebanese army, intended to give the state the capacity to enforce disarmament.

For now, Washington sees the combination of Iran’s weakened posture, disrupted weapons routes through Syria, and Gulf promises of billions in aid as a rare chance to resolve Lebanon’s long-standing Hezbollah dilemma. But whether Beirut’s leaders will seize the opportunity, or shrink back from confrontation, remains the decisive question.