Operation 'Lucky Drop' Did Yesterday's Strike Stop the Houthi Missile Threat?

Israel’s campaign against Yemen’s Houthi rebels, escalating since the "Iron Swords" war began on October 7, 2023, is a key element of its strategy to counter Iran’s regional proxies, including Hamas, Hezbollah, and Syrian forces aligned with Tehran. The Houthis, a Zaydi Shia militia controlling much of Yemen, have become a persistent threat, launching missiles and drones at Israel and disrupting Red Sea shipping. Despite Israel’s airstrikes on Houthi ports, airfields, and energy facilities, the group’s resilience, fueled by Iranian support and indifference to Yemen’s humanitarian crisis, poses a significant challenge. Yesterday’s airstrike in Sana’a, dubbed "Lucky Drop," targeted Houthi leaders in the Hada neighborhood, using deception to mislead them about Israel’s intelligence capabilities, though the campaign’s broader challenges remain central. This article examines Israel’s efforts, the potential for a long-term conflict, and the obstacles in confronting the Houthis.

The Houthi Threat and Israel’s Countermeasures

The Houthis intensified attacks following Hamas’s assault on Israel, framing their actions as support for Palestinians. Armed with Iranian-supplied long-range missiles and drones, they target Israeli civilian and military sites from over 2,000 kilometers away, with many intercepted by Israel’s Arrow defense system. Their attacks on Red Sea shipping have disrupted global trade, raising international alarm. Israel has responded with precision airstrikes on Houthi military targets, including Sana’a’s presidential palace, Asar and Hizaz power stations, and fuel storage sites. These strikes aim to weaken the Houthis’ capabilities, but their continued aggression, including missile launches following yesterday’s operation, indicates limited success.

Prospects of a Prolonged Conflict

Houthi official Mohammed al-Bukhaiti’s declaration, “We are prepared for a long struggle with the occupation and welcome direct confrontation with Israel,” signals their resolve. Several factors point to a protracted conflict:

Challenges in Confronting the Houthis

The Houthis’ decentralized structure, with no clear strategic target, hinders Israel’s efforts. Their use of civilian infrastructure for military purposes complicates strikes, risking criticism for worsening Yemen’s humanitarian plight. Economically, the Houthis sustain themselves through taxes, oil, and Iranian aid, quickly repairing damaged infrastructure. Diplomatically, Israel faces challenges as Gulf states prioritize de-escalation with Iran, and the U.S. focuses elsewhere.

Ending the Houthi threat requires a regional shift, potentially through a U.S.-led coalition, but political and logistical barriers make this unlikely. A Gaza ceasefire might temporarily reduce Houthi attacks, but their ideological commitment suggests resumed hostilities without significant military degradation. Israel’s strategy of targeted strikes and intelligence operations, like yesterday’s attack possibly killing figures like Ahmed Ghaleb al-Rahwi, aims to disrupt leadership, but the Houthis’ structure and Iran’s support limit impact.