Why Hamas Fears Israel’s Next Move in Gaza Will End Them?
Recent statements from Hamas leaders reveal their growing desperation as Israel threatens a major operation in Gaza, prompting a shift in their stance toward a partial hostage deal.
Hamas leaders are gripped by fear as Israel signals a potential large-scale operation in Gaza, dubbed by the terror group as “the final battle.” The initial euphoria of their October 7, 2023, attack, which they called “Tufan Al-Aqsa,” has evaporated, along with the effectiveness of their starvation campaign. Once hailed as a triumph that refocused global attention on the Palestinian cause, the attack is no longer celebrated by Hamas. Recent international setbacks, including Canada and Belgium retracting plans to recognize a Palestinian state and the U.S. urging Hamas to abandon Gaza through mediator Whitkoff, have deepened their isolation. Hamas leaders now believe only Yemen supports them, with Iran halting aid and even Qatar’s funding, controversial in Israel, seen as evidence of Doha’s abandonment.
This desperation has led Hamas to lower its demands and back a partial hostage release deal, as a full surrender or release of all hostages would spell the end of Yahya Sinwar’s vision, which aimed to derail Saudi-Israeli normalization. A decisive Israeli victory in Gaza could pave the way for broader regional agreements, potentially involving Syria and Lebanon. However, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected a partial deal, raising two key questions: Is Israel’s threat to enter Gaza more effective than an actual invasion, given the high costs in lives and international legitimacy? Could this be a strategic bluff to extract greater concessions from Hamas, such as more hostage releases?
Speculation is rife about a larger diplomatic maneuver, reminiscent of the lead-up to the Abraham Accords. President Trump’s prediction of the war ending in “two to three weeks” and Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer’s frequent trips between Jerusalem and Abu Dhabi fuel rumors of an innovative solution. Hamas’s weakened state and these diplomatic hints suggest a major development may be brewing in the Gulf, though it remains unclear if it will materialize before Israeli tanks reach Gaza’s Palestine Square.
Meanwhile, significant changes are unfolding in Netanyahu’s inner circle. Dermer, a key figure handling critical security portfolios, is set to resign by January 1, 2026, citing exhaustion and family pressures from protests. Tzachi Braverman, Netanyahu’s chief of staff, is bound for London as ambassador, while Tzachi Hanegbi, National Security Council head, will soon step down after battling illness. Yossi Shelley’s replacement, Yonatan Orich, faces obstacles due to police restrictions. These departures, coupled with a high-profile security appointee potentially from conservative media, signal a major reshuffle in a turbulent political climate.
Israel’s opposition is also faltering, with key figures like Yoel Razvozov, Orna Barbivai, and Idan Roll exiting Yesh Atid, and others like Gadi Eisenkot and Yifat Shasha-Biton leaving the National Unity Party. The opposition’s “outsourcing” of protests to non-parliamentary groups has eroded public trust, with polls showing a collapse from 36 to seven mandates for major opposition parties. New leaders like Naftali Bennett and Yair Golan are gaining traction, reflecting widespread frustration with the political establishment..