Encirclement or Escalation? Inside Israel’s Plan if Hamas Spurns Ceasefire Offer

Israel’s top security officials are gearing up for a critical decision on the Gaza Strip’s future as the deadline for Hamas to accept a ceasefire proposal approaches. With the security cabinet’s timeline ticking, the government must choose between fully occupying Gaza, encircling key areas like Gaza City, central refugee camps, and Khan Younis, or continuing targeted strikes against terror infrastructure under the current Operation Gideon's Chariots framework.

Military officials report that recent IDF operations, including the destruction of terror tunnels and elimination of Hamas field commanders, are laying the groundwork for tighter control, potentially through encirclement or beyond. “We’re dismantling their infrastructure above and below ground, giving us better dominance over these areas,” a military source said. The strategy aims to weaken Hamas’s operational capacity if talks falter.

In Rafah, preparations for a controversial “humanitarian city” continue, with engineering work underway for a tent compound between the Philadelphi and Mourg corridors. If Hamas rejects the deal and Israel opts for occupation, hundreds of thousands of Palestinians could be relocated there after security screenings. The plan, meant to separate civilians from fighters, has drawn criticism, with locals like Sami Obeid calling it a pretext for displacement, as reported by Ynet and Walla.

Starting Sunday, the IDF implemented daily 10-hour humanitarian pauses in Gaza City, Al-Mawasi, and Deir al-Balah, halting ground and air operations from 10:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. to allow aid delivery. These pauses, announced as indefinite, come amid international pressure but carry risks, with Southern Command bracing for possible Hamas attacks like rocket fire or armed marches. Secure corridors for UN aid convoys are also operational from 6:00 a.m. to 11:00 p.m.

The “humanitarian city” remains a focal point, with plans for an IDF-managed fund to distribute aid and bypass Hamas’s control. Hamas opposes centralized aid hubs, complicating efforts. As the political leadership awaits Hamas’s response, the IDF’s actions signal readiness for escalation or sustained pressure, balancing military goals with global calls for humanitarian relief.