What Israel Really Thinks About Al-Julani
In a series of aggressive strikes, the IDF targeted Syrian military assets and intervened in clashes in Suweida, signaling deep unease about the new regime’s intentions and its potential alignment with regional powers.
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The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have launched a sweeping campaign to neutralize threats from Syria’s rapidly shifting power landscape, as Abu Mohammad al-Julani, leader of the former al-Qaeda affiliate Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), consolidates control following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024.
Israeli officials are navigating a volatile situation marked by al-Julani’s surprising efficiency against Hezbollah and Iran’s Shiite axis, even as his forces face accusations of atrocities.
In Homs, where al-Julani’s HTS seized control, the IDF unleashed 600 strikes using 1,850 munitions, obliterating the Syrian Air Force, Navy, and air defense systems. The operation, which left Israel in effective control of the region through nine military outposts, was a preemptive move to counter potential threats from the new Syrian leadership. A senior IDF official emphasized that “every attempt at smuggling is dealt with immediately,” reflecting Israel’s determination to prevent weapons from reaching hostile groups like Hezbollah. The strikes followed daily operations in a designated security zone, with the IDF maintaining constant surveillance across Syria to monitor the evolving regime.
Meanwhile, in southern Syria’s Suweida province, intense battles left 1,400 dead, including 400 civilians, 240 of them women, children, and elderly, according to IDF estimates reported by Avi Ashkenazi in Maariv. The clashes, pitting al-Julani’s forces against local Druze and Bedouin communities, prompted Israel to provide humanitarian aid to Druze civilians, a key ally near the Golan Heights. When al-Julani’s internal security brigades sided against the Druze and some committed atrocities, murder, rape, and abductions, the IDF struck regime convoys, the Syrian military headquarters, and the presidential palace. The attacks were a clear message to al-Julani to halt the violence, as IDF pilots struggled to distinguish between Druze militias and regime attackers.
“We are in a state of heightened suspicion regarding the Syrian regime, and that’s how we approach all actions there,” a senior security official told Srugim News, echoing Northern Command chief Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin’s remarks in Maariv. Gordin, set to conclude his three-year tenure, described al-Julani as a complex figure: a former jihadist now fighting Hezbollah and Iran’s proxies with “remarkable efficiency,” surpassing even the Lebanese army. Yet, Israel remains wary, with Gordin emphasizing a cautious approach to the new regime’s uncertain trajectory.
Al-Julani’s rise comes as Syria’s military rebuilds from the ashes of Assad’s regime. The new leadership is forming divisions comparable to IDF brigades, with some dedicated to internal security to maintain order and stabilize separatist regions. However, many units remain understaffed, with only skeletal headquarters, as al-Julani avoids recruiting former Assad officers, fearing they could challenge his rule. Instead, he integrates fighters from the Syrian National Army (SNA) and HTS, though their radical Salafi tendencies, evident in Latakia and Jabal al-Druze, complicate efforts to build a cohesive force. Turkey has provided limited support, supplying armored personnel carriers, but no significant involvement is apparent.
Israel’s surprise at al-Julani’s effectiveness against Hezbollah and Iran’s Shiite axis highlights a strategic paradox. “He’s even more effective than the Lebanese army in this war,” a senior military official told Maariv, noting al-Julani’s success in curbing Hezbollah’s attempts to steal weapons from abandoned Assad-era units. Yet, Israel fears that Syria’s economic desperation—where wages average $30 a month—could allow Iran to recruit militia fighters for as little as $50, potentially reviving the “Iran-Syria-Lebanon” corridor. The new regime’s direction remains unclear, torn between Western alignment with the U.S. and Saudi Arabia or a radical Sunni path backed by Turkey and Qatar.
As al-Julani navigates internal and external threats, including from Iraq, Iran, and Hezbollah, Israel braces for an uncertain future, determined to prevent any resurgence of hostile forces.