Does Hamas Fear The Coming Gaza Operation?

Israeli political analysts of the Arab world speaking to Israeli media today (Thursday) are divided on whether Israel's plan to occupy Gaza City and eliminate the Hamas forces located there truly fear the coming operation or not, and what that says about the prospects for a hostage deal on Israel's terms.

On the one hand, analyst Tzvi Yehezkeli speaking to i24 News says that he believes that Hamas feels in control and with the upper hand in negotiations. He noted the near-successful raid on an IDF resting area as a sign that Hamas is far from "broken" and seeking to restore its strength in the Gaza Strip.

While Yehezkeli said that he believes it is necessary to occupy all of Gaza, he thinks that the delays and the threats Israel is making sound like a bluff to Hamas, which therefore does not take it seriously.

Meanwhile, Kann analyst Elior Levi said that a Palestinian source familiar with the negotiation details said that Hamas does indeed fear an IDF occupation of Gaza City - primarily because it would mean the creation of a Rafah 2.0, meaning a zone Hamas does not control and which is governed by armed militias not beholden to it.

This would align with the Israeli government's stated aims, approved by the cabinet, of replacing the Hamas government with a friendly Palestinian civil government which is neither Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority, while also relieving the IDF of the need to directly govern the population, something to which the IDF is very strongly opposed.

At least at present, the government does appear determined to continue with the operation, and Netanyahu's insistence on negotiating for a full release of all the hostages today appears to rule out any partial deals Hamas is hoping for.