“Dead?” Political Rivalries Intensify Amid Supreme Leader’s Absence
As Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei remains out of public view amid recent airstrikes and reported threats, Iran’s political factions are vying for power. President Raisi’s moderate camp appears to be gaining influence—while conservatives resist renewed diplomacy.
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For nearly a week, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been absent from public appearances, a silence that is fueling concern and speculation across Iran. Journalists, civilians, and even allies are openly asking the same question: “Where is the Supreme Leader?”.
An Iranian anchor recently asked Madi Fazeli, a close Khamenei aide, whether the Leader was safe. Fazeli offered a cryptic reassurance, saying: “We should all pray. Those charged with protecting him are doing their job well. Inshallah our forces will triumph alongside our leader.” But he provided no concrete explanation.
Khamenei’s last public appearance preceded a wave of unprecedented strikes, first by Israel, then by the United States, against Iranian targets. Mohsen Khalifa, an editor at an economic daily, acknowledged public anxiety, saying: “If he has died, his funeral will be the most grandiose and historic.”
As Iran’s supreme authority, Khamenei must approve all major military actions and ceasefire agreements. With his whereabouts unknown, senior officials remain tight-lipped about whether they have communicated with him, particularly ahead of the coordinated missile strikes on a Qatari base and the subsequent ceasefire mediated by Qatar at the behest of U.S. President Donald Trump.
Who is Filling the Vacuum?
Political analyst Hamza Sababi, son of a senior IRGC commander, says officials fear Israel may still target Khamenei, even during the ceasefire. As a result, communication with the outside world has been severely restricted. Sababi believes that while Raisi’s influence has grown, Khamenei continues to make key decisions remotely.
Four insiders within Iran’s decision-making circles report that military and political elites are now aligning behind rival alliances. These factions differ sharply on Iran’s nuclear program, U.S. diplomacy, and strategy toward Israel.
For now, the moderate-diplomatic faction, led by President Masoud Raisi, appears ascendant. Raisi, who signaled his desire to reenter negotiations despite recent U.S. strikes, receives backing from Judiciary Chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i and IRGC Commander-in-Chief Abdol-Rahim Mousavi.
At a government meeting Wednesday, Raisi described the current moment as a “golden opportunity for change,” saying that national unity forged by warfare and sacrifice provides a chance to reform governance.
His administration also aims to harness renewed nationalist sentiment, sparked by the Israeli strikes, which Tehran says killed more than 600 Iranians. A recent patriotic performance with the national symphony followed by illuminations in Azadi Square further demonstrates this mobilization effort.
Nevertheless, conservative factions remain vocal.
Leading hardliner Saeed Jalili, supported by many members of parliament and IRGC commanders, condemned the ceasefire and called for a rejection of renewed U.S. diplomacy. Jalili’s allies argue that President Raisi is too politically inexperienced for such a crucial period.
In turn, Ali Ahmadnia, Raisi’s spokesperson, responded on social media: “We didn’t endure 12 days of conflict to now deal with irresponsible voices like yours, who echo the enemy’s script.”
Meanwhile, the fate of Iran’s nuclear program remains uncertain. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Atomic Energy Organization head Mohammad Eslami have announced plans to rebuild and enrich the program despite recent U.S. strikes.