Shock Poll Reveals 89% of Iranians Demand Democracy: Is the Islamic Republic Doomed?
A 2024 GAMAAN survey reveals that 89% of Iranians prefer democracy over the Islamic Republic, with only 20% supporting the current regime. The poll highlights strong opposition among urban and educated groups, though preferences for a new system and leadership remain diverse.
A recent survey by the Netherlands-based Group for Analyzing and Measuring Attitudes in Iran (GAMAAN), conducted in June 2024, reveals a profound shift in Iranian public sentiment, with 89% of respondents expressing support for a democratic system and only 20% backing the continuation of the Islamic Republic. Conducted nearly five decades after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the poll of over 77,000 Iranians shows a steep decline in support for the revolution’s principles and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, dropping to 11% from 18% in 2022. The findings highlight a growing desire for political change, particularly among young, educated, and urban populations, with 74% of university graduates rejecting the current regime compared to 66% of those without higher education. Rural areas, however, showed higher support for the Islamic Republic at 28%, nearly double the urban rate.
The survey indicates no consensus on a replacement system, with 26% favouring a secular republic, 21% supporting a constitutional monarchy, and 22% unsure due to insufficient information. Another 11% prioritized change over the specific form of governance. Notably, 43% of respondents, especially in rural and less-educated communities, were open to a strong individual leader, though two-thirds rejected clerical rule and over 70% opposed military governance. GAMAAN noted, “The demand for a democratic government is widespread among Iranians, though at the same time, a notable portion of society shows an inclination toward individual authoritarianism. No political or civil figure currently enjoys majority support in society. Each political cluster represents only a portion (between 5% to 35%) of the population, and no single opposition force is capable of representing the full diversity present within the country.”
Among potential leaders, exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi garnered 31% support, followed by former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at 9% and jailed Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi at 5%. The survey, weighted to represent Iran’s literate adult population, underscores deep dissatisfaction amid economic crises, authoritarian crackdowns, and the 2022 Mahsa Amini protests, which fueled demands for personal freedoms. Recent events, including the 2024 presidential election and a brief 2025 Iran-Israel conflict, may further shape these sentiments, signaling a nation poised for change but divided on its path forward.