“Iran Cracked the Shield”: How Tehran Adapted to Breach Israel’s Air Defenses
Iran improved its missile strikes during the 12-day Operation Rising Lion by adapting tactics, doubling its success rate in breaching Israel’s advanced air defenses. Using hypersonic Fattah-1 missiles and varied launch strategies, Iran exposed vulnerabilities, challenging Israel’s Iron Dome, Arrow, and David’s Sling systems.
During the 12-day conflict dubbed Operation Rising Lion, which began June 13, 2025, Iran significantly enhanced its missile strikes against Israel by adapting its tactics, exploiting weaknesses in Israel’s multi-layered air defense systems through persistent trial and error. Initially, only 8% of Iran’s missiles penetrated Israel’s defenses in the first six days, but by the war’s second half, this rate doubled to 16%, according to the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA). The most effective strike occurred on June 22, when 10 of 27 missiles hit Israeli targets, just two days before a ceasefire. “The data suggests Iran successfully adapted ‘how, when, and what’ to fire,” said Ari Cicurel, JINSA’s associate director of foreign policy.
Iran shifted from large night-time barrages of 30-plus missiles to smaller, daytime salvos launched from diverse sites deep within its territory, targeting cities farther from the front lines. The deployment of the Fattah-1 hypersonic missile, which travels at Mach 15 with a detachable, manoeuvrable warhead, posed a significant challenge. Missile debris confirmed its use in at least two Israeli locations, with only advanced systems like Arrow 3 and David’s Sling capable of intercepting it. “Any missile system, even a sophisticated one like Israel’s, will leak eventually,” said Raphael Cohen, a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation. “The key for any air-defense system is less that you build a perfect system with any one layer and more the cumulative effect.”
Israel’s defenses, including Iron Dome, Arrow, and David’s Sling, supported by US THAAD systems, initially claimed 90-95% interception rates, but post-war analysis revealed an 86% overall rate. Israel’s pre-emptive strikes on Iran’s launchers eliminated older, less accurate missiles, forcing Iran to use advanced, long-range weapons sooner. Social media posts on X noted Iran’s tactical evolution, with one user stating, “Iran’s missile strategy outsmarted Israel’s defenses.” With 610 Iranian and 30 Israeli deaths reported, the conflict highlighted vulnerabilities in even the most advanced defense systems.