IDF Prepares for Hezbollah’s Radwan Force “Day of Reckoning”
Despite suffering major losses, Hezbollah remains a looming threat, the IDF warns. Israeli strikes have crippled the group’s firepower and leadership, but without sustained deterrence or a diplomatic solution, Hezbollah could regroup and return stronger. With thousands of rockets destroyed and elite units weakened, the conflict now hinges on regional dynamics and Israel’s next moves.
Twitter
Despite severe blows dealt to Hezbollah, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) warn that the organization has not been defeated, only “licking its wounds.” Without a diplomatic resolution or deterrence, Hezbollah could recover and return stronger and more dangerous, reports Avi Ashkenazi from Lebanon.
According to Maariv, three weeks ago, Israeli Air Force jets struck a Hezbollah weapons depot in Yahmour, in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley. The explosions shook large areas of Lebanon, Syria, and were even felt in Israel. The strike destroyed about a third of Hezbollah’s missiles and rockets—roughly 3,000 in total—marking one of the most significant blows to the group since the ceasefire took effect. Northern Command estimates that a third of Hezbollah’s firepower has been hit by the IDF since the ceasefire began. In two weeks, Northern Command chief Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin is set to end his tenure, leaving his successor a substantial legacy.
On the northern border, both the Syrian and Lebanese fronts are taking shape. In the Galilee’s confrontation line communities, 74% of residents evacuated after the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack have returned. In Shlomi, 100% of residents are back, while in Metula and Kibbutz Manara, just over 30% have returned. Estimates suggest more families will return to the Galilee in August.
The bigger story lies beyond the border. The IDF is closely monitoring Hezbollah’s activities. Northern Command acknowledges that for years, Israel pursued a “lax and failed” policy, allowing a “monster” to grow to proportions that threatened national security.
A senior Northern Command official stated that Hezbollah is at a crossroads, grappling with a sense of failure and defeat. “Hezbollah’s military capabilities have been hit across all its systems: attack, defense, command and control, and firepower,” the official said, adding, “1.6 million Lebanese civilians were displaced from their homes due to the war, primarily Shiites from southern Lebanon, the Bekaa, and Beirut’s Dahiyeh district. This creates a significant political problem for Hezbollah, as this is their base. They see the results in Dahiyeh, with 300 buildings razed to the ground, which is significant for them. The American presence and involvement are key to our ability to enforce the agreement.”
The IDF reports extensive damage to Hezbollah: of 9,000 commanders before the war, about 5,000 have been neutralized. Hezbollah is now appointing commanders unfamiliar with the terrain and roles, struggling to reorganize. Following a series of senior command assassinations, the group is forced to draw from its rear ranks.
The IDF highlights a manpower crisis in Hezbollah. The group’s reserve system has collapsed, with only 10% reporting for duty against Israel; the rest fled. Even in its regular forces, fighters have deserted front lines. Hezbollah comprises several combat wings, with the Radwan Force and the Southern Front being the most significant. The elite Radwan Force, once 6,000 commandos strong, has been severely hit and now numbers 2,500–3,000. Ten days ago, the Israeli Air Force struck Radwan training camps in the Bekaa Valley, where Hezbollah was attempting to train new recruits.
According to the IDF, the Radwan Force is trying to acquire new resources but lacks infrastructure near the contact line. Israel is preparing for several scenarios the Radwan Force might attempt on a “day of reckoning”: limited raids, high-profile terrorist attacks, targeting small IDF units, or even soldier abductions. Recently, the Radwan Force was ordered to redeploy from Syria to Beirut and the Bekaa to establish a security line within Lebanon, fearing internal opposition to Hezbollah.
Inspired by Hamas’s underground operations in Gaza, Hezbollah is also working to develop subterranean capabilities, though the IDF clarifies these are not comparable to Gaza’s “metro system” connecting villages or regions, as a senior officer noted.