Iran Denies Plans to Close Strait of Hormuz Amid Rising Tensions [UPDATED]
As oil markets tremble and Gulf nations brace for environmental fallout, the world watches the world’s most volatile chokepoint, where a single spark could ignite economic shockwaves and global upheaval.
According to the pro-Iranian Savrin News Agency, cited by Roi Kais, Iran has not issued any official statement from its Navy commander about closing the Strait of Hormuz, countering recent rumors. Despite this denial, the strategic waterway remains a flashpoint as tensions between Iran and Israel escalate, with past threats from Iranian lawmakers like Esmail Kosari and Behnam Saeedi suggesting closure as a potential retaliatory option against U.S. or Israeli actions.
What Would Happen If Iran Closes the Strait of Hormuz?
Closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20-26% of global oil and 30% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) transits daily, would have profound economic, geopolitical, and environmental consequences. Economic Impacts
Geopolitical Consequences
Environmental Risks
Iran’s Capabilities and Limitations
Iran has the means to disrupt the Strait, including:
However, a full closure is challenging:
Iran has never fully closed the Strait, even during the 1980s Iran-Iraq War’s “Tanker War,” when it attacked 239 oil tankers but only caused temporary disruptions. Threats to close the Strait, as in 2012 against sanctions, have historically been bargaining tools rather than actions.
Why Iran Might Avoid Closure
Analysts argue Iran is unlikely to close the Strait unless its regime faces existential collapse or its oil infrastructure is directly targeted. Closing it would:
While Iran’s denial of plans to close the Strait of Hormuz eases immediate concerns, the threat persists as a geopolitical lever. A closure would send oil prices soaring, disrupt global trade, and likely provoke a U.S.-led military response, risking a wider war. Environmental damage could cripple Gulf states’ water supplies. However, Iran’s economic dependence on the Strait and the likelihood of international backlash make a full closure a high-risk, low-reward move, reserved as a last resort. For now, the Strait remains open, but its vulnerability keeps markets and policymakers on edge.
UPDATE: Lawmakers in the Iranian Parliament reportedly just approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. A final decision now awaits approval from a senior security body.