How Tehran Outmaneuvered Israel’s Missile Defenses
What began as a largely intercepted barrage ended with Iran doubling its success rate, proving that even the world’s top missile shields can be breached when the enemy learns fast enough.
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Iran’s military adapted its missile and drone attacks with increasing success against Israel’s advanced air defense systems during the 12-day war earlier this year, according to a detailed investigation published Tuesday by *The Wall Street Journal*. Through a strategy of trial and error, Tehran refined its approach, exploiting vulnerabilities in Israel’s multilayered defenses and raising serious concerns about the limitations of even the world’s most sophisticated missile interception systems.
The report, based on open-source data, public imagery of missile debris, and expert analysis, details how Iran shifted tactics as the war progressed. Initially, most of Iran’s missiles and drones were intercepted by Israel’s defense systems, including the renowned Iron Dome, designed to counter short-range rockets from Gaza and Lebanon, and the more advanced Arrow 3 and David’s Sling systems, developed with U.S. collaboration to intercept long-range threats. However, Iran’s persistence paid off, with a growing number of missiles penetrating Israel’s defenses as the war wore on.
According to the *Journal*’s analysis, during the first half of the war, approximately 8% of Iranian missiles breached Israel’s defenses. By the second half, that figure doubled to 16%. Iran’s most effective strikes came on June 22, two days before a ceasefire took effect on June 24, when 10 out of 27 missiles successfully hit Israeli territory. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) declined to comment on specific interception rates, stating only that they do not disclose such operational details.
Experts cited in the report attribute Iran’s success to tactical adjustments. Tehran began launching more advanced, long-range missiles from diverse locations deep within its territory, complicating Israel’s ability to predict and counter attacks. The regime also varied the timing and patterns of its strikes while targeting a broader geographical range of sites across Israel. “Every missile system, even one as advanced as Israel’s, will eventually leak,” said Raphael Cohen, a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, in an interview with the Journal.
Israel’s air defense network, widely regarded as one of the most effective globally, faced unprecedented challenges during the conflict. The Iron Dome, which has a proven track record against short-range threats, was less relevant against Iran’s long-range arsenal. Instead, systems like Arrow 3 and David’s Sling, designed to intercept ballistic and advanced missiles, were put to the test. Public Israeli statements, analyzed by the *Journal*, suggest a decline in interception rates over the course of the war. During Operation “Like a Lion,” the IDF reported intercepting 90% to 95% of Iranian missiles. By the war’s end, the overall interception rate had fallen to 86%, according to military statements following the June 24 ceasefire.
Israel’s preemptive strikes on Iranian missile launchers disrupted Tehran’s ability to deploy its older, less accurate, short-range missiles. This forced Iran to rely on its more sophisticated, long-range systems earlier than anticipated. Among these was the hypersonic *Fateh-1* missile, debris from which was found in at least two Israeli cities, according to missile experts who examined wreckage imagery. The *Fateh-1* is designed to descend at a steep angle from beyond Earth’s atmosphere at speeds exceeding 10 times the speed of sound. Its warhead, which detaches in flight, is capable of maneuvering to evade interceptors, posing a significant challenge to all but Israel’s most advanced systems.
As Cohen noted, no system is foolproof, and Iran’s tactical evolution during the brief but intense conflict may signal further escalation in future confrontations.