Is Iran’s Nuclear Dream Really Shattered? Why the need to keep telling us it was destroyed?
Conflicting U.S. and Israeli intelligence assessments emerge following the massive airstrike campaign on Iran’s nuclear program. As debate intensifies over the true scale of the damage, questions remain about whether Tehran can rebuild — or if its nuclear ambitions were buried in the rubble.
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Five days have passed since the U.S. attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, and there is still no fully substantiated assessment of the extent of the damage caused by the strikes. An initial Pentagon report suggested the damage was insufficient, but yesterday the CIA concluded that significant damage was inflicted.
Here's what you need to know.
One report, cited by CNN, Reuters, and others referencing a highly confidential Pentagon document, caused significant outrage at the White House by stating that no significant damage was inflicted on Iran’s nuclear sites.
Trump was furious, cursed, and even called for the firing of CNN journalist Natasha Bertrand, who reported the story. While Trump himself claimed there was “complete destruction” of the nuclear program, the official U.S. administration statement to the UN indicated that capabilities were “significantly degraded.”
The U.S. President’s stance oscillated between “complete destruction” and a recovery timeline of “decades.” In his frustration, he cited an Israeli source, the Atomic Energy Commission in the Prime Minister’s Office, which stated: “The devastating U.S. attack on Fordow destroyed the critical infrastructure of the site and rendered the enrichment facility inoperable. We estimate that the American strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, combined with Israeli attacks on other components of Iran’s military nuclear program, have set back Iran’s ability to develop nuclear weapons by many years.”
Yesterday, the CIA released a new assessment of Iran’s nuclear situation following the strikes, clarifying that the previous leaked military intelligence report from the DIA is no longer relevant.
The CIA assessment, published yesterday, stated:
“The CIA can confirm that reliable intelligence indicates Iran’s nuclear program has suffered severe damage due to recent precise strikes. This includes new information from a source/method historically considered reliable and accurate, suggesting that several key Iranian nuclear facilities have been destroyed and will require years to rebuild.
The CIA continues to gather additional information from credible sources to update decision-makers and relevant oversight bodies. When possible, we will also provide updates and information to the American public, given the national importance of the issue and in an effort to ensure as much transparency as possible.”
The New York Times claims that none of the reports from various intelligence agencies confirm the U.S. President’s assertion that Iran’s nuclear program was completely destroyed.
However, in recent days, there is a growing assessment that the attacks indeed caused significant damage to Iran’s nuclear program.
The Times also noted that even according to the report Trump criticized, estimating damage as “moderate to severe”, Iran is unlikely to attempt to rebuild the affected nuclear sites. According to that report, it would take Iran months to restore its nuclear program as a whole.
The NSA also analyzed intercepted phone calls from Iranian officials and satellite imagery of the nuclear sites.
Tulsi Gabbard, the Director of National Intelligence, shared new intelligence on social media, indicating that it would take years for Iran to rebuild the three sites hit by the U.S. strikes if it chooses to do so.
Meanwhile, both the U.S. and Israel await more precise and updated intelligence on the actual damage inflicted on the nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
The following questions remain unanswered:
Were all the centrifuges at the enrichment sites damaged, and can they be repaired?
Even if they weren’t damaged, can the Iranians access those centrifuges buried deep underground under the rubble of the bombings?
Is the enriched uranium buried at one of the sites, as per the Israeli assessment, or was it moved beforehand?
Are there additional enrichment sites or centrifuges that the West and its intelligence are unaware of, or were centrifuges relocated from those sites in advance?
At this stage, there are no definitive answers to these questions, at least not for the general public, which is not privy to intelligence assessments. Time will tell.