Iran is in real danger
Rationing, shortened workdays, and school restrictions join galloping inflation and mysterious explosions; citizens describe a sense of “free fall” and doubt the regime’s ability to halt the decline.
Last month, the government warned that Tehran’s water reserves could run out within weeks, urging citizens to reduce consumption, an almost impossible task amid extreme weather. In the past month, Tehran and other cities recorded temperatures exceeding 40°C, while in Abadan and southern settlements along the Gulf, temperatures hit over 50°C, among the world’s highest. Residents are thirsty, water is scarce and polluted, prolonged power outages paralyze cities, agriculture collapses, and waterborne diseases spread. The crisis has become a burning public issue, dominating social media, academia, and media, driving people to protest.
The crisis has deepened class divides, distrust in the regime, and unemployment. Many farmers, labeled “water refugees,” abandon fields and migrate to cities, only to face a saturated job market and lack of integration. The result: rising crime, social tension, and instability.
Iran’s President, Masoud Pezeshkian, mockingly rejected Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent offer to assist Iran’s residents facing a severe water crisis, claiming, “A regime that deprives Palestinians of water and food is not trustworthy.”
Nuclear Reactors, The Silent Devourers
Alongside the depleted water supply, nuclear reactors and uranium mining facilities consume vast amounts of fresh water. These industries pollute rivers, lakes, and groundwater, damaging the country’s water sources.
Frequent power outages, even in major cities, disrupt hospitals, heavy industry, and the petrochemical sector, deepening the sense of collapse.
Uranium extraction requires building dams, digging wells, and diverting rivers, actions that consume water and pollute the environment with high radioactive levels. Most reactors are located in arid regions, where water scarcity is already severe.
Iran expert Sara Larak Zilberberg from the Institute for National Security Studies and Tel Aviv University explains in an article the reasons for Iran’s severe water crisis:
- Climate change and prolonged droughts, persistent decline in precipitation.
- Population surge, doubling since 1980 to about 89 million.
- Expanded agriculture, policy doubling cultivated land despite water shortages.
- Massive water waste, average daily consumption of 250 liters per person, double the global average, and in Tehran, up to 400 liters.
- Failed and corrupt management, dam construction harming water sources, lack of enforcement, and resource loss.
The water crisis isn’t unique to Iran. Regional countries, including neighbors, face severe drought affecting their stability. Some transboundary rivers directly impact Iran’s water supply, and regional tensions exacerbate the issue.
While Gulf states enjoy 70-90% water supply from desalination, Iran lags behind. Saudi Arabia aims to lead globally in this field. For Iran, solutions like desalination and wastewater recycling for agriculture are essential but require abandoning costly, diplomatically isolating projects.
The Real Test: Fundamental Policy Change
Even expensive technological solutions won’t suffice without deep reform: corruption-free water management, strict enforcement against illegal pumping, public education on conservation, subsidy cuts, and a shift to sustainable agriculture. Without fundamental policy changes, Iran’s economic, social, and political stability hangs by a thread.
Iran faces a complex political and economic dilemma, complicating its strategy to escape the looming crisis. On one hand, the regime tries to maintain public calm with extensive subsidies, including water subsidies for farmers and households. On the other, this policy encourages excessive water consumption, placing Iran at the top of global per capita water use and hinders incentives for conservation.
The water crisis now joins a severe energy crisis, forcing Tehran, one of the world’s largest gas and oil exporters, to implement “power rationing” for industries, shorten work hours, and limit school and university operations since December.
The combination of war with Israel, mysterious explosions attributed to sabotage, rampant inflation, and frequent water and power outages creates growing instability among citizens. On social media and in media interviews, many describe a “free fall” and doubt the leadership’s ability to stop the decline.
A few days ago, Netanyahu released a video addressing Iran’s citizens in English, calling to topple the ayatollah regime and promising that “once your country is free, Israel’s top water experts will reach every city in Iran with the most advanced technologies and expertise.”
This isn’t a new statement. Seven years ago, Netanyahu released an English video (translated to Persian) offering the Iranian people technological cooperation to prevent an environmental catastrophe.
He noted that 95% of Iran’s population suffers from varying degrees of drought, and 50 million Iranians risk displacement due to environmental damage, a result of the regime’s “mismanagement and resource theft.”
Netanyahu highlighted Israel’s achievements: recycling nearly 90% of wastewater, developing drip irrigation, and other water solutions. He offered Iran programs to recycle water and save agriculture, urging a distinction between the Iranian people and regime: “The Iranian people are good and honest. They shouldn’t face the cruel regime alone. The regime’s hatred won’t stop the friendship between our peoples.”
What’s Happening in Israel?
Amid the ongoing decline in Lake Kinneret’s water level and regional drought, Israel’s Water Authority instructed Mekorot to make proactive operational changes at the Degania Dam to restore regular flow to the southern Jordan River. This aims to preserve ecological balance, support agriculture, and ensure tourism sites along the river function properly.