Why Israel's Daring Doha Strike Missed Its Mark

The smoke has barely cleared from the skies over Doha, but already a web of intrigue is unraveling around Israel's audacious airstrike on Hamas leadership in Qatar. What was billed as a decisive blow against the terrorist group's exiled elite, Operation "Fire Summit", possibly became a high-profile miss, sparing top figures like Khalil al-Hayya while claiming the lives of his aides, son, and security personnel.

As investigations deepen, reports from Israeli and Arab sources point to a perfect storm of intelligence failures: a suspected U.S. information leak, a serendipitous afternoon prayer break that left cell phones behind as decoys, and timely warnings from Turkish intelligence. This confluence not only thwarted the operation but has ignited concerns in Jerusalem about the reliability of allies and the shadowy alliances sustaining Hamas.

The strike, launched yesterday amid a U.S.-brokered ceasefire push in Gaza, targeted a residential compound in Doha's upscale Katara district where Hamas's political bureau convenes. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz oversaw the mission from a secure command center, greenlighting precision-guided munitions based on Shin Bet and Mossad intelligence pinpointing the location of al-Hayya, Khaled Mashal, and other seniors.

The goal: Decapitate the leadership responsible for the October 7, 2023, massacre and ongoing hostilities. Yet, while the attack killed Jihad Labed (al-Hayya's chief aide), Hammam al-Hayya (his son), Moamen Hassouna (a security operative), and even a Qatari guard, the primary targets slipped away unscathed.

Enter the first chink in the armor: A report from Israel's Channel 7 has raised alarms in security circles about a potential leak from the United States that may have compromised the operation. Sources cited by the channel suggest that sensitive details, possibly including the timing or target specifics, were inadvertently or deliberately shared through diplomatic channels, allowing Hamas to heighten vigilance.

This comes amid strained U.S.-Israel relations under President Donald Trump, who publicly rebuked the "unilateral" strike as counterproductive to peace efforts and assured Qatar's emir that such incidents wouldn't recur.

While the White House insists the operation was Israel's alone and that it merely notified Doha in advance to mitigate risks, Israeli officials are privately fuming, viewing the disclosure as a betrayal that "hampered the thwarting of the murderous organization's senior officials."

Danny Danon, Israel's ambassador to the United Nations, explained, "It was not an attack on Qatar; it was an attack on Hamas. We are not against Qatar, nor against any Arab country, we are currently against a terrorist organization."

The leak theory gains traction given Qatar's hosting of the Al Udeid U.S. Air Base and its role as a mediator, raising questions about how much foreknowledge circulated in Washington and beyond.

Compounding the intelligence woes, Arab media outlets are buzzing with (unverified) accounts of a near-miss born of routine piety. According to various sources quoted in reports from Al-Jazeera and other regional networks, the Hamas delegation had convened in the main negotiation room to discuss the latest U.S. ceasefire proposal when the call to afternoon prayers (Asr) echoed through Doha around 4:00 PM local time.

The leaders, al-Hayya chief among them, stepped out to a nearby mosque, but in a fateful oversight (or clever ploy), they left their cell phones behind on the table. Mossad and Shin Bet, relying on signals intelligence to track the devices, interpreted the stationary signals as confirmation that the targets remained inside.

The subsequent airstrike pulverized the room, but the men were reportedly spared, emerging later to decry the attack as a "failed assassination attempt" aimed at derailing talks. Hamas spokesperson Basem Naim told reporters, "This Zionist aggression only strengthens our resolve," while confirming the deaths of lower-level staff as "martyrs."

But was it mere coincidence, or did external actors tip the scales? Arabic reports, including those from pro-Hamas outlets and Lebanese channels, allege that Turkish intelligence (MIT) issued a last-minute warning to the Hamas delegation, urging them to evacuate or alter routines ahead of the Israeli assault. Turkey, under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a vocal supporter of Palestinian causes, has long provided covert aid to Hamas, including financial channels and diplomatic cover.

Sources claim Ankara's spies, embedded in regional networks, intercepted chatter about the impending strike and relayed it via encrypted messages, possibly influencing the prayer timing or prompting a temporary dispersal. This aligns with broader reports that both Turkish and Egyptian interlocutors had cautioned Hamas leaders weeks in advance about heightened Israeli threats, framing the Doha operation as part of a post-Jerusalem bus attack escalation. Erdogan's government, which condemned the strike as "state terrorism," has denied direct involvement but reiterated its "fraternal ties" with Hamas.

The fallout is rippling across the region. Qatar has suspended mediation efforts, the UN has decried the sovereignty breach, and even allies like Saudi Arabia have expressed dismay. In Israel, the partial success, eliminating key aides, has been overshadowed by recriminations. Netanyahu's office insists the operation disrupted Hamas operations, but opposition figures decry it as a "tactical blunder" that alienated mediators and emboldened enemies. Security analysts, like those at the Middle East Forum, argue the strike was "justified and overdue" but also show the perils of operating in hostile diplomatic terrain.

Israel is staying very quiet, and Hamas has denied that any of its leaders were killed.

Meanwhile, an old photo of Halil Al-Hayya is being shared all over Arab media, purportedly showing that he survived yesterday's attack.

Israel’s ambassador to the U.S., Yechiel Leiter told Fox News, “If we didn’t take out Hamas’s top leaders this time, we will the next. There’s criticism now, but people will move past it.”

As Gaza braces for renewed offensives and hostage families plead for restraint, the Doha debacle reveals the razor-thin margins in modern warfare: Where intelligence leaks, forgotten phones, and foreign whispers can turn triumph into tragedy. For Hamas, survival is a propaganda win; for Israel, a stark reminder that even the mighty Mossad isn't infallible. The path to peace, if it exists, grows ever more labyrinthine.

At the same time, in a related development, according to Maariv, optimism is reportedly growing in Israel that the recent strike in Qatar successfully eliminated its intended targets, even as official results have yet to be revealed. This completely contradicts the above-mentioned reports in Arab media. At this point, we will know when we know (or when Hamas decides to come clean.)

In addition, on a live Al Jazeera broadcast Hamas political bureau member Suhail al-Hindi referred to al-Hayya as a “shahid” (martyr), before immediately correcting himself.