The Secret Reason Why Israel Is Betting on Hamas to Refuse the New Deal

A new proposal for a hostage deal, presented to Hamas by American envoy Steve Witkoff, is reportedly an Israeli initiative in disguise. The plan calls for the immediate release of all hostages, living and deceased, on the first day of a ceasefire. In return, the two sides would enter into negotiations, personally managed by President Donald Trump, to bring about a permanent end to the war. The war would not resume as long as these talks are ongoing.

The proposal has been met with skepticism within both Israeli and Hamas circles. In Jerusalem, many believe Hamas will not agree to give up its primary leverage, the hostages, in exchange for what is essentially a verbal assurance that the war will end. Officials close to the Prime Minister's office said Israel is "considering the proposal very seriously," but believe Hamas "will likely continue its refusal."

This expected rejection is said to be the proposal's true purpose. According to sources, if Hamas refuses the deal, Israel will be able to brand the organization as the sole obstacle to a ceasefire and a hostage release, giving Israel the international legitimacy it needs to move forward with a large-scale military operation to occupy Gaza. In this context, the proposal is seen as a diplomatic "ticket out" for Israel to proceed with its military goals.

Meanwhile, Hamas has not rejected the proposal outright, but has instead offered a response that reveals an internal dispute. The organization insists on its long-held precondition that a final end to the war be declared before any deal is made. This stance is in direct opposition to the new proposal, which calls for negotiations on a permanent ceasefire only after the hostages are released. Sources say there is a heated debate within Hamas over whether to negotiate on this comprehensive deal or to stick with the phased, partial deal proposed by Egypt and Qatar.

The debate also extends to the highest levels of the Israeli government. Key cabinet ministers, who were reportedly not briefed on the proposal beforehand, are expected to reject a deal that would include a full Israeli withdrawal and the end of the war. They argue that such an agreement would undermine the stated goals of toppling Hamas and disarming the Gaza Strip.