For the First Time: The Right-Wing Bloc Can Block The Left

A new mandates poll conducted by Yossi Tatatika, political consultant and owner of "Tatatika Research and Media," in cooperation with the Adgenda panel, presents changes in the political map. According to the poll published on the 'Times of Israel' website, the Likud party strengthens by two additional mandates, and Bezalel Smotrich's party crosses the electoral threshold for the first time and reaches five mandates.

In the distribution of mandates, the Likud party receives 28 mandates. Naftali Bennett's party, "Naftali Bennett 2026," receives 25 seats. The two ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, win 10 and 7 seats respectively. The additional coalition parties, Religious Zionism and Otzmah Yehudit, receive 5 seats each.

In total, the coalition parties reach 55 seats, a number that is not sufficient to form a government, but according to Tatatika, prevents the opposition from forming a government without partnership with the Arab parties.

The opposition parties, including Bennett's party, receive 65 seats in total. Yisrael Beiteinu receives 10 seats, the Democrats party 9 seats, and Yesh Atid 8 seats. Blue and White and Ra'am receive 4 seats each, and Hadash-Ta'al seats 4 mandates. The Balad party is below the electoral threshold.

The Arab parties - Balad, Hadash-Ta'al, and Ra'am - are reportedly in talks to recreate the Joint Arab List which broke up in 2021, leading to the separate running of Ra'am, which also joined the Bennet-Lapid government. A successful reunification of the parties would likely foreclose the possibility of an anti-Netanyahu coalition, due to non-Ra'am parties having views considered unacceptable to many hawks in that camp, such as Avigdor Liberman.