When will Israel-Iran war end? Ask Thailand.
Tourism officials brace for steep drop in Middle Eastern visitors as conflict threatens to drag into November.
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The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) warns of a sharp decline in tourist arrivals from the Middle East, particularly from Israel and Iran, following the escalation of the conflict that turned into direct military confrontation starting June 13.
Authorities estimate that the number of visitors from five key countries in the region - Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria - could plummet by 30% to 50% as early as June, and that the tourism market from Israel may be significantly affected during the third quarter of 2025.
According to the authority's data, around 100,781 tourists from the Middle East (excluding Israel) arrived in Thailand in June 2024, with these five countries contributing about 7% of the figure. This year, against the backdrop of regional tension and airspace closures, officials in Thailand estimate that only about 3,500 to 5,000 visitors will arrive from these countries in June 2025, mainly due to flight cancellations during the Eid al-Adha period, which was previously a peak season with over 7,000 visitors.
Currently, Mahan Air is the only airline that has temporarily canceled its direct flights from Bangkok and Phuket, following the closure of Iranian airspace, which has led to almost a complete disappearance of the Iranian tourist market to Thailand.
Thai Minister of Tourism and Sport, Phiphat Ratchakiat, noted that the crisis raises concerns about escalating into a broader regional war, which would affect both the global economy and the local tourism sector. He stated that the Tourism Authority has developed two scenarios for the Israeli market: in the optimistic scenario, where tensions subside during the third quarter, Thailand is expected to receive about 350,000 Israeli visitors in 2025, a 24% increase compared to the previous year, but still 77,000 below the original forecast.
In the pessimistic scenario, where the fighting continues until November, recovery will only occur in December, and the number of Israelis is expected to total around 335,000 - a decrease of 92,000 from the previous expectation.