"Obey Or Die": Israel Must Decide Julani’s Fate

Israel must present a simple choice to Julani: be supervised by Israel - or die.

Right now, Jerusalem is preparing military blows without a coherent long-term doctrine.

The evolving situation in Syria presents Israel with a rare opportunity to move beyond reactive military campaigns and begin crafting a long-term strategic doctrine - one that transcends the binary of war or peace and embraces proactive conflict management through deliberate, policy-driven planning.

Israel needs to learn from how the U.S. manipulates regional dynamics, including inside Israel itself. In the past, every diplomatic agreement pushed by Washington was, in one way or another, designed to limit Israel’s ability to independently manage a blueprint for regional balance. Now with a true friend in Washington, it's time to change our historical reactive posture, that borrows from American paradigms and priorities - and attempt a more clarity-based vision of regional dominance.

The failure of Israeli strategy in Syria is now undeniable.

Julani has effectively lost control of southern Syria, though local Bedouins continue to operate as his proxies. Yet he stands to benefit either way: the Druze and Bedouins represent two competing challenges that may end up neutralizing each other. Should conflict erupt between them, Julani can maintain plausible deniability, preserving his influence without direct involvement, while wearing down his opponents and quietly strengthening his claim to power.

But when Israelis refuse to actively manage the situation they allow him room to weaponize any development in the region towards further consolidation.

Given his ties with Turkey, Julani must be controlled - or eliminated.

And “controlled” means: if you can't govern yourself in a way that serves our security interests, we will govern you. And if we won't nobody won't.

The Syrian conflict proves a painful truth: Israel excels at neutralizing threats, but fails to manage opportunities.

We're trapped between an American geopolitical framework and a tactical military mindset.

With all due respect, we lack the substance, vision, and institutional infrastructure to pursue long-term regional security strategy.

One reason? We’ve become addicted to micromanaging the Palestinian issue - and have stopped looking beyond it.

What Israel needs now is a dedicated strategic security policy unit, composed not just of diplomats, but also of minds from military intelligence and the Air Force. People who understand the battlefield and the boardroom.

As it stands, we are capable of serving dishes approved after peeking at someone else’s cookbook. That’s not strategy - it’s mimicry.

If Israel had a genuine regional vision, it would have publicly issued an ultimatum: Abu Mohammad al-Julani will die unless the massacres of Druze civilians in southern Syria ceased - regardless of his direct involvement.

Why?

Because such a threat would have triggered one of three outcomes:

Any of these would have:

Israel has the capability, but not yet the courage, to lead the region.

Without bold vision and institutional strategy, we’ll remain tacticians in a chess game played by others. It’s time to build that vision, and start acting like the regional power we already are.

If not, Turkey, Qatar, Egypt or Saudi Arabia will do it for us, Just like we did it for them for the last two years...