From Partner to Predator: Julani’s Druze Crackdown Stuns Israel
Based on an interview originally published in Maariv, Prof. Amatzia Baram explains why the recent assault in southern Syria shattered the illusion of partnership between Israel and Damascus, and leaves Israel stuck between pragmatism and principle
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In a revealing interview with Maariv, Professor Amatzia Baram, a leading Middle East expert from the University of Haifa, warned that Israel’s delicate balancing act, protecting its Druze allies while cautiously engaging with Damascus, may be reaching a breaking point.
Baram argues that the recent military assault by Syrian regime forces on Druze communities in Suwayda has to a large extent shattered hopes for cooperation between Israel and Syria’s new leadership. Baram sees the deadly incursion into southern Syria as a watershed moment that exposes deep contradictions in Israeli policy.
“Until days ago, there was a real chance of Israeli-Syrian coordination, especially against Hezbollah,” Baram said. “But what’s happening on the ground now changes everything.”
He described the emerging dynamic as a “strategic illusion”: al-Julani, keen to shed his jihadist past, has sought closer ties with the West and regional powers to rebuild Syria. Israel, meanwhile, saw an opportunity for limited cooperation to counter Iran and Hezbollah. That logic collapsed when regime forces launched an assault on Druze villages in Suwayda.
“This wasn’t just a tactical move,” Baram asserted. “It calls into question whether al-Julani truly controls his forces, or worse, if he gave the order himself.”
Israel now faces a complex dilemma. On one hand, Baram acknowledges, it has legitimate strategic interests in coordinating with Damascus. On the other, Israel has a moral and national responsibility to protect the Druze, not only as a minority under threat, but because their relatives in Israel serve in the IDF and are loyal Israeli citizens. “The Syrian Druze are not pro-Israel,” Baram emphasized. “But we owe it to our own Druze community to act if their families are being massacred just 80 kilometers from our border.”
The heart of the conflict, Baram explains, lies in the refusal of the Druze to disarm or allow government troops into their communities. The regime, until now, avoided confrontation. But when Sunni Bedouin and jihadist factions attacked Druze areas, elements within al-Julani’s military may have seized the moment to reassert full control.
If that move came without presidential authorization, it suggests Julani has lost control. If he did authorize it, Baram warns, it reveals a dangerous double game - projecting moderation to the West while enabling sectarian violence behind the scenes. “Either way, the implications are bad,” he said.
For Israel, the immediate options are limited. Full military intervention is off the table. But, Israel may have to conduct limited operations, such as airstrikes, tank fire, or precision raids, to prevent mass atrocities.
Politically, Baram believes Washington should pressure Julani by threatening renewed sanctions if attacks on Druze civilians continue. “The economic card matters a lot,” he said.
Looking ahead, the best-case outcome might involve a semi-autonomous Druze zone, with local police made up of Druze volunteers in Syrian uniforms, maintaining order under symbolic Damascus authority. That arrangement, Baram believes, could satisfy both parties. But time is short, and sectarian hatred runs deep. “For jihadists, the Druze, like Alawites and Shiites, are apostates,” Baram noted. “They consider them traitors to Islam and want them dead. And many of those jihadists are now inside Julani’s army.”
Ultimately, this crisis tests Israel’s ability to act both morally and strategically.
“We need to operate with a scalpel, not a hammer. Cautiously, but when lives are at stake, we cannot stand by.”