Israel could lose all its allies over deadly Doha strike
Israel’s unprecedented strike in Qatar has ignited a diplomatic firestorm, testing the country’s most crucial alliances. As the U.S. and key neighbors like Jordan and Egypt condemn the move, a geopolitical tightrope snaps taut. The question isn't just whether a hostage deal can be salvaged, but whether Israel’s most critical partnerships can survive a move that has made its allies wonder: whose side is Jerusalem really on?
It's still unclear whether and to what extent Israel's strike targeting Hamas leaders in Doha, Qatar's capital, was successful.
By all accounts, this was a bold and unprecedented military move, an attack on a country not officially at war with Israel.
Ironically, less than three months ago, Iran attacked targets in Qatar in retaliation for a U.S. strike on its nuclear facilities. Now, Israel has violated Qatar's military and political sovereignty by targeting Hamas leaders operating under its protection.
International media, including The Wall Street Journal, reported that Egypt and Turkey warned Hamas leaders in Qatar months ago about the possibility of an Israeli strike, advising them to beef up their security.
Meanwhile, The Washington Post reported that Qatari officials are furious over Israel's breach of a Mossad commitment not to carry out attacks on their soil.
Qatari sources also claim the U.S. promised that Hamas leaders would be safe in Qatar, according to senior Washington Post columnist David Ignatius, who addressed the Doha attack in his column.
Qatar's intricate web of interests is well-known, but the deep offense Qatar is signaling to the world is no small matter.
That said, from Israel's perspective, Hamas isn't the main focus. Were it not for the hostage issue, Hamas wouldn't even be seen as a major problem. Most experts agree Jerusalem's eyes are fixed on its southern and eastern fronts, Egypt and Jordan. Both countries sharply condemned Israel's strike.
Egypt's statement called it "an escalation that undermines international efforts to de-escalate tensions and threatens the region's security and stability."
Jordan's Foreign Minister, Ayman Safadi, said his country would support "any measures Qatar takes to protect its sovereignty." He called Israel's action a "cowardly act of aggression" and emphasized it as "a continuation of Israel's brutal aggression that blatantly violates international law."
Israel's "Friendly" Neighbors
Jordan and Egypt, Israel's two neighbors with active peace agreements, play critical roles in the regional landscape, each in its own way. Jordan contends with its long border with Iraq, threats from pro-Iranian militias, and Palestinian pressures, while Egypt is modernizing its military with U.S. support and positioning itself as a key mediator between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
Unlike Qatar, known for its business savvy in turning regional interests into industrial profits and diplomatic wins, Egypt lags behind, somewhat stuck in the past. They're convinced size is the only factor that matters. Their diplomacy is more aggressive, and their strength lies in their artillery.
From this angle, Turkey's Erdogan, who adapts well to modern dynamics, seems to calculate coldly, preferring alliances with Qatar over Egypt. This rattles Egypt, compounded by fears of a massive influx of Gazan refugees that could destabilize them, fueling their anger at Israel, the region's driving force.
Egypt also mediates between Israel and Hamas, maintaining international visibility and reaping diplomatic and economic benefits. Despite anti-Israel rhetoric in Egyptian media, reality shows mutual dependence: Israel helps thwart Iranian plots and secures southern borders, while Egypt facilitates humanitarian aid and diplomatic mediation in Gaza.
Jordan as a Gateway to Israel-Palestinian Tensions
In the Hashemite Kingdom, the long border with Iraq is a constant source of tension. The Jordanian army ramps up oversight during Iraq's unstable periods, but there's fear that pro-Iranian militias could exploit Jordanian territory to attack Israel or stir internal chaos.
The Jordanian government has little interest in souring ties with Israel beyond a certain point. Jordan relies on Israel for gas, water, and intelligence. Israel supplies hundreds of millions of cubic meters of water annually and helps foil Iranian schemes along eastern borders. Still, relations between King Abdullah and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are chilly, sometimes hostile, especially over issues like the Temple Mount and Palestinian politics.
The Palestinian Issue
The Palestinian question is a perpetual landmine for both countries. Jordan has managed a massive Palestinian population since 1948, and any Israel-Palestinian friction reverberates in the kingdom, sparking protests, speeches, and sometimes violence. Egypt mediates between the sides, carefully pressuring Hamas to keep the border quiet, while grappling with fallout from Gaza conflicts.
Caught between the south (Egypt) and the north (Syria and Lebanon), Jordan is in a tough spot. A proud nation with a bruised ego, it's facing economic struggles, especially in infrastructure and desalination.
Over the past decade, Jordan's borders haven't been airtight. At several points along its border with Israel, zealous pro-Iranian militias are poised, waiting for orders to strike the "Zionist enemy."
The Palestinian Problem
Even the royal palace isn't thrilled about the idea of hundreds of thousands of destitute Gazan refugees flooding its territory, bringing poverty and low-level crime.
These fears are taking shape, and despite the big money promised by U.S. President Trump and his talk of reconstruction, the Arab world doesn't change its nature. Racial purity and power struggles could lead to a security explosion with the region's most aggravating player: Israel.
Israel's strategic cooperation with both countries stabilizes its borders, blocks Iranian infiltration, and maintains relative calm. But the political tensions and competing interests show these alliances are fragile: any military or diplomatic misstep could destabilize Jordan and Egypt and jeopardize strategic agreements with Israel.
Since October 7, tensions have spiked significantly between Egypt, Jordan, and Israel. Harsh, belligerent statements have filled the air, and Israel can't always rely on the word of its neighboring leaders.
Behind the Scenes of Egypt Tensions
Last month, Israel signed one of its largest-ever gas deals: Egypt will buy about 130 billion cubic meters of natural gas from the Leviathan field in a deal worth roughly $35 billion through 2040. Led by Ratio, NewMed Energy (part of Delek Group), and Egypt's Blue Ocean Energy, the agreement includes building a new $400 million gas pipeline, set to be completed by 2028.
The deal is a strategic move for Egypt, forced to become a gas importer after a 40% drop in output from its Zohr field, coupled with rising energy demand in the Middle East's most populous nation, some 110 million people.
For context: just five years ago, Egypt was a gas exporter, but now it's in its third year of strict energy conservation.
Against this backdrop, the deal with Israel aims to address Cairo's severe energy crisis and strengthen economic ties between the two nations, even amid Gaza-related tensions. However, recent comments by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have worsened the situation. He accused Egypt of "trapping Gaza's residents against their will" and claimed it's violating the Camp David Accords by massing armored forces in Sinai.
Peace, Not at Any Cost
Cairo sees Israel's "voluntary migration" plan as a threat to its national security, and hints at opening the Rafah crossing are taken almost as a declaration of war. Despite the massive economic deal, Egypt doesn't see itself as dependent on Israel. Presenting the agreement as a political card could prove a grave mistake.
Ultimately, Egypt is Israel's key Arab partner in the historic peace agreement that paved the way for deals with Jordan and Gulf states. This new conflict risks undermining a cornerstone of regional stability.
What Should Israel Do?
In an article published by Middle East expert Oded Eilam on the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs website, he stresses that Israel must work to ease tensions with Jordan.
He notes that as Iran's influence in Syria and Lebanon wanes, Jordan and Egypt are becoming central players in Israel's strategic landscape. The Hashemite Kingdom has clearly aligned with the moderate Sunni axis, cooperating with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the West in countering pro-Iranian forces in the region.
Jordan is tightening oversight of its long border with Iraq, with its army safeguarding national stability and blocking militia incursions backed by Iran. Meanwhile, Egypt maintains its role as a key mediator with Hamas, investing heavily in Sinai's security while balancing domestic pressure with its actions toward Israel.
Israel's alliances with both nations are a multifaceted strategic asset: they provide geographic, intelligence, and perceptual security. The key is not to back Jordan and Egypt into a corner but to offer a ladder to climb down, gently but firmly, while strengthening cooperation against shared threats.