Netanyahu's Occupation Plan: Right Idea, Stupid Execution

Prime Minister Netanyahu has secured the approval of the cabinet for a broad plan for truly eliminating the threat presented by Hamas in the Gaza Strip, as laid out in the following statement:

1. The disarming of Hamas.

2. The return of all the hostages – the living and the deceased.

3. The demilitarization of the Gaza Strip.

4. Israeli security control in the Gaza Strip.

5. The establishment of an alternative civil administration that is neither Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority.

Point number 5 is of particular importance; ever since the war began, Israel focused on collapsing Hamas governing authority but invested little if any energy and planning in replacing their power with something else. The result is Hamas continuing to be the sole effective governing authority in any area containing significant numbers of Palestinians, even as the whole world uselessly declares that Hamas must go.

And Hamas must indeed go.

If it is allowed to maintain its weapons and organization, even if it technically does not take part in the governance of the Strip, it will effectively reign without ruling, as whatever technocratic government is established will lack both the hard power and popular legitimacy to enforce any agreement with Israel or other countries to be the sole armed power in the Gaza Strip, a la Lebanon's effort to disarm Hezbollah.

Until now, Netanyahu's triangulation, and his insistence that he can secure the rescue of the hostages AND the elimination of Hamas as a governing power and armed organization has secured real dividends for Israel. It has secured the release of most of the hostages, the elimination of most of Hamas' senior leadership and at least about 60% of their trained fighters. It also permanently destroyed the IDF's almost pathological pre-October 7 fear of operating in the Gaza Strip at all.

But it's crunch time, now. The time to make hard decisions and take real risks. Hamas is clearly no longer willing to make partial deals now that it has the international wind at its back, damning Israel for a famine it has engineered by stealing all the food and giving the Palestinians a state without anything resembling a powerful moderate leadership that would check groups like Hamas.

What's more, destroying Hamas means not occupying Gaza City, but occupying the central camps where most of Hamas' remaining big units remain largely untouched, even at the risk of getting the remaining living hostages killed.

Even the idea of establishing an alternative authority in Gaza City is too improvised and contradictory. An authority needs civilians to serve, but reports suggest the plan is to evacuate the civilians, then destroy Hamas forces in the city, then establish an authority. With whom? For whom? Will the civilians be let back in? These are details that are vital to address and no-one in Netanyahu's office appears to have devoted any real thought to these crucial details.

Bibi is known to be a master tactician, both in domestic and foreign affairs, as well as a far-seeing strategist, as can be seen by his efforts against Iran. But this plan has all the markers of the worst of worlds when it comes to Israeli-style improvisation: The correct identification of all the necessary strategic goals with none of the serious, brass-tacks planning to make any of it happen or last.

Israeli patience is not endless and the time for clever time-buying is over. This plan needs to show results, and soon, or Israel will end up exactly where it is now - going nowhere and angering everyone.