Turkey's Shadow Over Israel: Rhetoric, Rupture, and Real Risks in 2025

In the volatile chessboard of Middle Eastern geopolitics, Turkey under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has emerged as one of Israel's most vocal antagonists. Once allies in the 1990s, their relationship has deteriorated into a toxic mix of fiery rhetoric, economic sanctions, and proxy maneuvering. But how much of a genuine threat does Turkey pose to Israel today?

As the Gaza conflict drags into its second year and regional alliances shift, the answer lies in a spectrum of diplomatic isolation, economic pressure, and indirect military risks, though a direct clash remains unlikely due to geographic distance, NATO constraints, and mutual deterrence.

The downward spiral accelerated after Hamas's October 7, 2023, attacks and Israel's subsequent Gaza offensive. Erdogan, positioning himself as a champion of the Palestinian cause, has unleashed a barrage of condemnations, labeling Israel a "terror state" and comparing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Hitler. By mid-2025, this translated into concrete actions: Turkey fully suspended trade with Israel in May, closed its airspace to Israeli flights in August, and banned Israeli ships from Turkish ports. The Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said that these actions were a direct result of Israel “committing genocide in Gaza for the past two years, ignoring basic humanitarian values right before the world’s eyes,” speaking at a special session of the Turkish parliament on Gaza. However, Israel says its planes are still flying over Turkey.These measures, described by analysts as "wartime-level rupture," have severed billions in bilateral trade, once valued at $7 billion annually and forced Israeli airlines to reroute, adding costs and delays.

Diplomatically, Turkey's moves aim to isolate Israel on the global stage. Erdogan has rallied Muslim nations, hosted Hamas leaders, and pushed for international boycotts. In April 2025, leaked documents revealed Turkish efforts to broker talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, but these fizzled amid mutual distrust. More alarmingly, Erdogan's April rhetoric calling for Israel's "destruction" amid Syria's regime change raised red flags in Jerusalem. Turkish influence in post-Assad Syria, including military bases and proxy militias, could create new fronts for anti-Israel operations, potentially funneling arms to Hezbollah or Hamas.

Militarily, the threat is more indirect than imminent. Turkey boasts a formidable army, the second-largest in NATO, with advanced drones like the Bayraktar TB2, which have proven effective in conflicts from Libya to Ukraine. In February 2025 assessments, Israeli think tanks warned of Turkey's upgrading missile and aerial capabilities as a "potential direct threat." Yet, experts note limitations: Turkey's forces are stretched across Syria, Iraq, and domestic Kurdish insurgencies, and a direct assault on Israel, over 1,000 kilometers away, would invite devastating retaliation from Israel's superior air force and nuclear deterrent. Instead, risks manifest through proxies: Turkish support for Qatar (a Hamas backer) and alliances with Iran could amplify threats in Gaza or Lebanon.

Economically, Turkey's boycotts sting but aren't existential. Israel's pivot to alternative markets, like India and the Gulf states via the Abraham Accords, has mitigated losses. However, in a broader sense, Turkey's actions fuel anti-Israel sentiment, complicating Jerusalem's ties with Europe and the Arab world. For instance, the Netherlands' July 2025 threat assessment lumped Israel with Turkey, Iran, and Russia as actors seeking to "control public opinion," highlighting how Erdogan's narrative resonates in the West.

Despite the bluster, glimmers of pragmatism persist. A July 2025 Wilson Center analysis described the dynamic as "layers of complexity and posturing," with underlying security cooperation against common foes like ISIS. Trends Research noted an "emerging modus vivendi" driven by U.S. pressure on both NATO allies. Erdogan, facing domestic economic woes and inflation above 60%, may use anti-Israel rhetoric for political gain without escalating to war.

In sum, Turkey's threat to Israel in 2025 is moderate: High on rhetoric and economic disruption, medium on proxy warfare, but low on direct military confrontation. As one Israeli official quipped, "Erdogan talks like a lion but acts like a fox." For Israel, vigilance is key, monitoring Turkish moves in Syria and the Mediterranean, while leveraging alliances to counterbalance Ankara's ambitions. In this enduring rivalry, words wound, but actions define the red lines.