We Won’t Be Eating Hummus in Damascus, At Least Not Anytime Soon

Col. (res.) Dr. Jacques Neriah, a senior researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, warns that the likelihood of a true security agreement with Syria is extremely low.

“There’s only a temporary convergence of interests between Israel and Ahmad al-Sharaa over two common enemies, Iran and Hezbollah,” Neriah told reporters. “This isn’t normalization, just a force-limitation arrangement. It’s not peace, at best, it’s a mechanism to prevent direct friction.”

Turning to Lebanon, Neriah is blunt: “The dream that the Lebanese Army will disarm Hezbollah is a fantasy. The army is sectarian, about 60% Shiite and it would collapse if it acted against Hezbollah.” He noted that the latest signal was chilling: “Six Lebanese soldiers were killed in a booby-trapped Hezbollah outpost, in other words, Hezbollah sent a message: don’t mess with us.”

Neriah concludes that Israel must avoid being drawn into another costly military adventure in Lebanon. “There’s no reason to go back to 1982. A guerrilla war like that could exact a heavy price.”

According to an analysis by Yoav Limor in Israel Hayom, the collapse of Iran’s regional influence has ushered in a transformative moment for the Middle East, enabling unprecedented agreements between Israel, Syria, and Lebanon. These deals, driven by Israel’s military successes and shifting geopolitical dynamics, promise significant security benefits but carry substantial risks, as the volatile histories of both nations and emerging threats loom large.

Iran’s Waning Power and Israel’s Strategic Gains

Iran’s diminished role stems from two pivotal events: Israel’s effective campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. These developments disrupted Iran’s territorial corridor from Tehran to Lebanon, previously used to produce and transport weapons, including through Syria. Hezbollah, once a formidable proxy designed to deter Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, suffered a severe blow. During Israel’s June 2025 war, Hezbollah refrained from significant retaliation, signaling its weakened state and fear of further losses, Limor notes. The group’s image as Lebanon’s protector has eroded, with Christian and even some Shiite communities, led by figures like Nabih Berri, questioning its legitimacy amid resource shortages and calls for reconstruction.

In Syria, the collapse of Assad’s regime ended Iran’s unchecked access to Syrian territory for military purposes, severing a critical link in its regional strategy. This tectonic shift has created opportunities for Israel to secure its northern borders through agreements that were unimaginable months ago.

Lebanon’s New Leadership and Disarmament Talks

The appointment of Joseph Aoun as Lebanon’s president marks a turning point, made possible by Hezbollah’s weakened state following the death of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah. Aoun, described as a proud Lebanese patriot, is not an Israeli proxy but shares Israel’s interest in disarming Hezbollah and removing IDF forces from southern Lebanon. His primary motivation, Limor explains, is securing Saudi funds for Lebanon’s reconstruction, ravaged by years of conflict and economic crisis. Aoun’s push to neutralize Hezbollah’s military presence aligns with Israel’s long-standing demands, though these were previously unattainable due to Hezbollah’s political and military dominance and the absence of effective mediation.

U.S. envoy Tom Barr, backed by CENTCOM, has facilitated indirect talks between Jerusalem and Beirut, lending credibility to the prospect of disarming southern Lebanon. However, the process is fraught with challenges, including the need to bolster the Lebanese army to secure the border, a calculated risk that could backfire if not carefully managed.

Syria’s Security Pact and Emerging Threats

In Syria, a nascent security agreement with Israel, brokered by the U.S., reflects the priorities of Ahmad al-Sharaa, the new Syrian leader. Facing a devastated country, al-Sharaa seeks reconstruction funds and international legitimacy, agreeing to Israel’s demands to keep jihadist groups away from its border, protect the Druze minority, and avoid military buildup that could threaten Israel. These concessions, driven by pragmatism rather than affinity for Israel, mark a significant departure from Syria’s historical alignment with Iran.

Yet, al-Sharaa’s growing ties with Turkey and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan raise alarms. Limor warns that Turkey, alongside Qatar, could foster a new Sunni radical axis, potentially replacing Iran as Israel’s primary regional threat. This concern underscores the precarious nature of the agreement, as Syria’s internal instability and al-Sharaa’s vulnerability to assassination by domestic rivals add further uncertainty.

Risks and Realities: A Call for Caution

Despite the diplomatic breakthroughs, Limor urges restraint in celebrating these developments. Both Syria and Lebanon have bloody pasts, and their futures remain uncertain. Ahmed al-Sharaa and Aoun face existential threats, with the latter’s presidency historically vulnerable to attack. To mitigate risks, agreements must be institutionalized with governments and backed by U.S., French, and Arab state support to ensure stability.

Israel’s diplomatic successes in Syria and Lebanon contrast sharply with its ongoing challenges in Gaza, where military achievements lack a corresponding political strategy. This “muddle,” Limor argues, risks undermining Israel’s broader regional gains, as continued stalemate in Gaza could destabilize the delicate balance achieved in the north.

A Fragile New Reality

The agreements, facilitated by U.S. mediator Tom Barrack's shuttle diplomacy between Jerusalem, Beirut, and Damascus, capitalize on Israel’s military victories and Iran’s weakened position. Hezbollah’s diminished capacity and Syria’s post-Assad landscape have created a window for progress, but the path forward is fraught with obstacles. The potential rise of a Turkey-Qatar axis, internal instability in both nations, and the challenge of disarming Hezbollah without sparking conflict demand careful navigation.

As Israel navigates this new reality, the agreements offer a rare opportunity to secure its northern borders and reduce immediate threats. However, Limor cautions, “It’s best to hold off on the champagne,” as the region’s volatility and complex web of interests could quickly upend these gains.