Dramatic Poll: Lapid at New Low; Gantz Erased
According to a mandate poll conducted by the 'Direct Polls' institute, Likud maintains its strength, Bennett soars, while Lapid scrapes the electoral threshold and reaches an all-time low.
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A new poll published on i24NEWS presents a surprising picture of the political map. The poll, conducted by the "Direct Polls" research institute, examined two scenarios and found that if elections were held today, Naftali Bennett's party "Bennett 2026" would be the second-largest party, while "Yesh Atid" barely scrapes the electoral threshold.
Scenario A – Without New Right Party In a scenario where current parties compete, the mandate map looks like this: Likud – 28 seats, Bennett 2026 – 19. The Democrats – 13, Shas – 10, Jewish Power – 9, Yisrael Beiteinu – 9, United Torah Judaism – 8, Religious Zionism – 6, The Reservists (Yoaz Hendel) – 5, Ra'am – 5, Yesh Atid – 4, Hadash-Ta'al – 4.
Blue and White and Balad parties do not pass the electoral threshold in this scenario.
Scenario B – With New Right Party The poll also examined a scenario where a new right-wing party competes, composed of security establishment veterans, led by Yossi Cohen, Dedi Simhi, Ofer Winter, and Amir Avivi. In this situation, the mandate map changes significantly: Likud – 25 mandates. Bennett 2026 – 17 seats, New Right Party – 13, The Democrats – 13, Shas – 9, Yisrael Beiteinu – 8, United Torah Judaism – 8, Jewish Power – 5, The Reservists (Yoaz Hendel) – 5, Ra'am – 5, Yesh Atid – 4, Hadash-Ta'al – 4, Religious Zionism – 4.
In this scenario as well, Blue and White and Balad do not pass the electoral threshold.
The poll was conducted on August 20, 2025, by the "Direct Polls" institute among 542 respondents, with a statistical sampling error of ±4.1%.