New Poll: Netanyahu Heading For Reelection?

A new poll conducted by Shlomo Filber for Channel 14 News and published today (Thursday) shows Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition winning reelection.

According to the poll, if the election were held today, this is how seats would be allocated in the Knesset: Likud 34, Bennett 14, Democrats 11, Shas 11, Yisrael Beiteinu 8, United Torah Judaism 8, Yesh Atid 8, Jewish Power 6, Blue and White 6, Religious Zionism 5, Hadash-Ta'al 5, Ra'am 5.

Below the threshold percentage: Balad 2.3%.

Blocs: The Coalition 64, Opposition 56.

Channel 14 polls, whether done by Filber or by Direct Polls, have consistently shown Netanyahu's coalition maintaining a narrow majority, along the lines of the majority it won in the previous election, despite widespread outrage at the failure to stop or foresee October 7, which occurred on Prime Minister Netanyahu's watch.

Many other polling firms suggest a far less rosy scenario for Netanyahu's coalition come election time, including Manu Geva and others. Despite Likud's recovery from its near-collapse to about 15 seats in the months after October 7 to about 25 seats in most polls today, none of them see Likud getting the over 30 seats envisaged by Channel 14 polls.

Furthermore, non-Channel 14 polls consistently show Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism party falling below the electoral threshold and being knocked out of the Knesset, depriving Netanyahu's coalition of about 4 vital seats.

Despite multiple crises involving the handling of the war, the question of the Haredi draft, and other problems, Netanyahu's coalition continues to hold steady and appears set to stay in power until the scheduled election of November 2026, although some media reports suggest Netanyahu wants to hold early elections in September 2026, before the third anniversary of October 7.