Flawed Data or Famine Reality? Gaza Report Questioned

A recent IPC (Integrated Food Security Phase Classification) report declaring Gaza Governorate in Phase 5 famine has sparked controversy, with experts questioning the scientific basis of the metrics used to justify the claim.

The Famine Review Committee (FRC) determined that Gaza Governorate is currently experiencing famine, projecting that Deir al-Balah and Khan Younis Governorates could cross famine thresholds in the coming weeks. The IPC report emphasizes that this famine is man-made and calls for an immediate, large-scale humanitarian response to prevent further mortality.

However, critics highlight a fundamental flaw in the evidence underpinning the declaration: the measure of acute malnutrition. According to IPC’s technical manual, Phase 5 famine requires 30% of children aged 6–59 months to have a weight-for-height z-score (WHZ) below -2, a standard widely recognized as the “gold standard” for assessing malnutrition.

In practice, WHZ is difficult to measure during humanitarian crises, requiring rapid weighing and measuring of children under stressful conditions. As a practical alternative, IPC permits using middle-upper arm circumference (MUAC), with a threshold of <125mm indicating acute malnutrition. In Gaza, MUAC measurements in July reportedly reached 16%, which the IPC used to justify declaring famine.

The problem, according to critics, is that the 15% MUAC threshold lacks scientific grounding. IPC itself admits that no robust evidence establishes this cutoff as equivalent to WHZ<-2 = 30%. Regional adjustments, such as those offered for the Middle East, rely on only nine samples, rendering the justification statistically weak. Scatter plots from the referenced studies indicate that dozens of MUAC readings at this level do not correspond to WHZ exceeding 30%, suggesting that the threshold generates a high rate of false positives.

An earlier paper by the same research team explicitly cautions against using any fixed MUAC threshold as a substitute for WHZ. Based on these standards, Gaza Governorate is likely well below the 30% threshold required to declare Phase 5 famine, despite the dire humanitarian situation.

Critics also point to additional disqualifying factors. For example, the IPC projections failed to account for rapid policy changes that reduced flour prices in Gaza. Since the July 20 peak, flour prices have dropped nearly 90%, significantly affecting food access and nutritional outcomes. According to Gaza Chamber of Commerce and Industry data, the price of flour has fallen 92% since its peak, while general consumer prices have declined roughly 25% since mid-August.

The critique does not dispute the existence of severe malnutrition and food insecurity in Gaza. Rather, it challenges the methodology and thresholds used to classify the situation as famine, suggesting that the IPC report overstates the level of acute malnutrition according to its own standards.

While the humanitarian crisis in Gaza remains severe and demands urgent attention, experts argue that accuracy in reporting thresholds is critical to ensure effective and proportionate responses.