Expert Assesses: The Likelihood of an Iranian Attack on Israel

Iran expert Benny Sabti addressed the conduct of the Ayatollah regime in Iran since the war with Israel, and provided his forecast for a scenario of another confrontation between the countries.

In an interview with the 'Mako' website, Sabti said: "The sharp decline in bellicose statements from senior Revolutionary Guards officials is not coincidental. Tehran now wants to project calm, but not to change direction rather to buy time. The regime believes that as long as its leadership survived the campaign and the Supreme Leader was not harmed, it can absorb the damages, postpone decisions and wait for a new opportunity to break forward."

Sabti assesses that Iran's refusal to acknowledge defeat, together with spreading propaganda about restoring damaged systems, could lead to escalation. "It's like a stubborn kid in the neighborhood who every time he gets beaten up gets up and says, 'Nothing happened to me'."

According to him, Tehran might choose graduated provocations to project resilience without wanting direct confrontation. "This is not necessarily out of a desire for war, but as part of the need to preserve an image of steadfastness," he explained. "Iran might start with provocations to such an extent that it provides Israel with that additional justification," he warns.

Sabti shared the interview on his X account and wrote: "In light of the many questions about the chance of a surprise Iranian attack against Israel, my interview (and others) - the probability of Iranian madness is actually very low because their capabilities have not been restored, and they are the ones who are actually afraid of an Israeli attack and therefore issue threats in return. So it's better for everyone to save on threatening words."